Siemens Aktiengesellschaft

Jeremy-Ralph Wiles

Joachim Bamberger

Ti-chiun Chang

Jan Ernst

Andrei Szabo

A short-term cloud forecasting system includes a cloud segmentation processor that receives image data from images captured by an all sky camera. The cloud segmentation processor calculates a probability for each pixel in an image that the pixel is representative of a cloud. A cloud motion estimation processor calculates a motion vector representing estimated cloud motion calculates weights representing the likelihood that the cloud motion will cause a cloud to occlude the sun at a time in the near future. An uncertainty processor calculates one or more uncertainty indexes that quantify the confidence that a cloud forecast is accurate. Combining the cloud probabilities, the global motion vector and the at least one uncertainty index, in a sun occlusion prediction processor produces a short-term cloud forecast based on the image data that may be used as input to control systems for controlling a power grid.

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Graefenberg, Germany

Jeremy-Ralph Wiles