Maplebear Inc.

Ganesh Krishnan

Aman Jain

Soren Zeliger

Houtao Deng

Zi Wang

Wa Yuan

Ji Chen

Jian Wang

Radhika Anand

Xiangyu Wang

Graham Adeson

Trace Levinson

Amy Luong

Michael Righi

Ross Stuart Williams

Michael Scheibe

Mike Freimer

George Ruan

Aishwarya Balachander

Qianyi Hu

Shuai Wang

Sonali Deepak Chhabria

Zhaoyu Kou

Embodiments relate to determining an availability of a service option for delivery of an order placed with an online system. The online system receives an order placed with the online system. The online system accesses a computer model trained to predict a value of metric for an order placed with the online system. The online system applies the computer model to predict the value of the metric for the order. The online system determines which service option of a plurality of service options of the online system is available for delivery of the order, based at least in part on the predicted value of the metric and a threshold. The online system causes the device of the user to display an availability of the determined service option for delivery of the order.

Using computer model to determine availability of service option for delivery of order placed with online system

An online concierge system provides arrival prediction services for a user placing an order to be retrieved by a shopper. An order may have a predicted arrival time predicted by a model that may err under some conditions. To reduce the likelihood of providing the predicted arrival time (and related services) when the arrival time may be incorrect, the prediction model and related services are throttled (e.g., selectively provided) based on one or more predicted delivery metrics, which may include a time to accept the order by a shopper and a predicted portion of late orders that will be delivered past the respective predicted arrival times. The predicted delivery metrics are compared with thresholds and the result of the comparison used to selectively provide, or not provide, the predicted delivery services.

Selectively providing machine learning model-based services

An online concierge system includes a marketplace automation engine for setting various control parameters affecting marketplace operation. The marketplace automation engine applies a hyperparameter learning model to the marketplace state data to predict a set of hyperparameters affecting a set of respective parameterized control decision models. The hyperparameter learning model is trained on historical marketplace state data and a configured outcome objective for the online concierge system. The marketplace automation engine independently applies the set of parameterized control decision models to the marketplace state data using the hyperparameters to generate a respective set of control parameters affecting marketplace operation of the online concierge system. The marketplace automation engine applies the respective set of control parameters to operation of the online concierge system.

Automation engine using a hyperparameter learning model to optimize sub-systems of an online system

An online concierge system assigns shoppers to fulfill orders from users. To allocate shoppers, the online concierge system predicts future supply and demand for the shoppers' services for different time windows. To forecast a supply of shoppers, the online concierge system trains a machine learning model that estimates future supply based on access to a shopper mobile application through which the shoppers obtain new assignments by shoppers. The online concierge system also forecasts future orders. The online concierge system estimates a supply gap in a future time period by selecting a target time to accept for shoppers to accept orders and determining a corresponding ratio of number of shoppers and number of orders. The online concierge system may adjust a number of shoppers allocated to the future time period to achieve the determined ratio number of shoppers and number of orders.

Predicting shopper supply during a time interval based on interactions by shoppers with a shopper assignment application during earlier time intervals

For each retailer in the geographic region, an online system predicts a number of orders placed at the retailer and a capacity to fulfill orders during a forecast time period. The capacity of the retailer is predicted based on a number of pickers expected to be available to the retailer during the forecast time period. The online system determines demand for the services of a picker at the retailer based on a comparison of the predicted number of orders and the predicted capacity to fulfill those orders. The online system displays a user interactive map of the geographic region to the picker. The map displays a pin at the location of each retailer in the geographic region, which describes the categorization determined for the retailer. The picker selects a pin, which causes the user interactive map to display a notification characterizing the demand for services at the retailer.

Methods and non-transitory computer readable storage medium for showing availability of orders for concierge shopping service

An online concierge system allows users to order items within discrete time intervals later than a time when an order was received or for short-term fulfillment when the order was received. To account for a number of shoppers available to fulfill orders during different discrete time intervals and numbers of orders for fulfillment during different discrete time intervals, the online concierge system specifies a target rate for orders fulfilled later than a specified discrete time interval and a threshold from the target rate. A trained machine learning model periodically predicts a percentage of orders being fulfilled late, with an order associated with a predicted percentage when the order was received. The online concierge system increases a price of orders associated with predicted percentages greater than the threshold from the target rate. The increased price of an order is determined from a price elasticity curve and the predicted percentage.

Adjusting demand for order fulfillment during various time intervals for order fulfillment by an online concierge system

An online concierge system trains a machine learning conversion model that predicts a probability of receiving an order from a user when the user accesses the online concierge system. The conversion model predicts the probability of receiving the order based on a set of input features that include price and availability information. For each access to the online concierge system, the online concierge system applies the conversion model to a current price and availability and to an optimal price availability. The online concierge system generates a metric as the difference between the two predicted probabilities of receiving an order.

Machine learning model trained to predict conversions for determining lost conversions caused by restrictions in available fulfillment windows or fulfillment cost

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San Francisco, CA, United States of America

Ganesh Krishnan