Siemens Aktiengesellschaft

Ariane Sutor

Wolfram Klein

Francesco Montrone

Stefan Rothbauer

Reiner Heilmann

Ralph Grothmann

Oliver Maeckel

Manfred Lohner

Wolfgang Streer

Petra Ehlers

Robert Schulte

A method for computer-aided simulation of operating parameters of a technical system including a plurality of modules which each contain one or more components is provided. Failure events with associated downtimes for each component are simulated in a predetermined operating period using a first probability distribution for the moment of failure of the components and a second probability distribution for the length of the failure of the components, and a third probability distribution for a degree of reliability of the modules is determined. Based upon the probability distributions for the degrees of reliability of the modules, operating parameters of the technical system are simulated for the predetermined operating period. The method is used for any technical facilities, in particular for energy generation facilities.

Method for computer-aided simulation of operating parameters of a technical system

IN a method and a device for determining a probability of occurrence that an overall system fulfills a predefined system performance, the overall system is composed of instances of different classes of partial systems, and each class of partial systems has an associated class fault tree. The method has the following steps: (a) calculating (S) an overall performance for each failure combination of the number of non-failed instances within a class; (b) automatic selection (S) of failure combinations, the calculated overall performance of which fulfills the predefined system performance; (c) automatic generation (S) of an overall fault tree based on the class fault trees of partial systems as a function of the selected failure combinations; and (d) evaluating (S) of the generated overall fault tree for calculating the probability of occurrence of a fulfillment of the predefined system performance by the overall system.

Method and device for determining a probability of occurrence by evaluting an overall fault tree

A technical system is broken down into a plurality of subsystems, each of which is allocated a time-dependent distribution function which describes the probability of failure of the respective subsystem. The distribution functions are linked to one another to form a time-dependent system distribution function which describes the probability of failure of the technical system.

Method for error tree analysis

The invention relates to a method for the computer-assisted analysis of the reliability of a technical system comprising a plurality of technical components. According to the method, the reliabilities of the components are respectively described by a component function that depends on at least one parameter and a parameter interval of the at least one parameter, which is associated with the components and influences the reliability of the components; a system reliability of the technical system is determined from the reliabilities of the components; a variation value is respectively determined for at least some of the components f&, constituting a value for the variation of the system reliability according to the variation of the parameter interval of the respective component; and an influence quantity relating to the influence of the respective components on the system reliability is respectively determined for at least some of the components from the variation value.

Method for computer-aided analysis of the reliability of a technical system, corresponding device, and a corresponding technical system

An evaluation is performed for a device, an application and/or a method, in particular a method for establishing a technical system such as a power plant for instance, the assessment being carried out on the basis of costs for risks. In accordance with the method, the costs for specific risks are to be assessed. A risk costs interval is to be determined, which contains the actual risk costs with high probability. This is achieved by a regression of intuitive assignments to a straight line by an indirect linear regression by a non-linear regression in an intermediate diagram.

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Gräfelfing, Germany

Ariane Sutor