International Business Machines Corporation

Anuradha Bhamidipaty

Dhavalkumar C Patel

Nianjun Zhou

Bhavna Agrawal

Shrey Shrivastava

Arun Kwangil Iyengar

Emmanuel Yashchin

Yingjie Li

Elham Khabiri

Shuxin Lin

Jonathan D Dunne

Jeffrey Owen Kephart

Robert J Baseman

Chandrasekhara K Reddy

Zhengliang Xue

Sarika Budhiraja

Srideepika Jayaraman

Jayshree Sanjayam

Temporal and spatially integrated forecast modeling includes generating a plurality of forecast models for a plurality of short-term to long-term time periods for a plurality of locations. Temporally integrating the plurality of forecast models sequentially over the plurality of time periods for the plurality of locations and spatially integrating the temporally integrated plurality of forecast models for each location hierarchically over the geographic areas. The forecast models are autoregressive distributed lag models with different explanatory variables for the short-term and long-term forecast models. The temporally integrating includes recursively integrating the plurality of forecast models over the time periods from the short-term to the long-term time periods and the spatially integrating includes recursively integrating the temporally integrated plurality of forecast models hierarchically from larger size geographic areas to smaller size geographic areas. The method includes optimizing the resultant spatially and temporally integrated forecast model based on a plurality of constraints.

Multi-locational forecast modeling in both temporal and spatial dimensions

A method is provided for creating a semantic model for submitting search queries thereto. The method includes an act of receiving data from one or more input sources in an entity and relationship capture service of a situational awareness engine. The method further includes an act of extracting entities and relationships between the entities in two or more extraction services, where the two or more extraction services include at least two of a table-to-graph service, an event-to-graph service, a sensor-to-graph service, a text-to-graph service, and an image-to-graph service. The method includes an act of generating a semantic model based on fusion and labeling the extracted data provided by the at least two extraction services, where the semantic model can receive a search query and respond to the search query based on the generated semantic model.

Situational awareness by fusing multi-modal data with semantic model

A computer-implemented method can determine a linguistic boundary condition for synthetic data generation in a multi-class classification problem. The method includes analyzing empirical labelled data using linguistic and vector representation techniques. The method further includes deriving a synthetic boundary conditional (SBC) model based on the analysis of the empirical labelled data and identifying a boundary location for performant synthetic data generation using the SBC model.

Boundary detection for synthetic data generation

Methods and systems to provide a form of probabilistic labeling to associate an outage with a disturbance, which could itself be either known based on the available data or unknown. In the latter case, labeling is especially challenging, as it necessitates the discovery of the disturbance. One approach incorporates a statistical change-point analysis to time-series events that correspond to service tickets in the relevant geographic sub-regions. The method is calibrated to separate the regular periods from the environmental disturbance periods, under the assumption that disturbances significantly increase the rate of loss-causing events. To obtain the probability that a given loss-causing event is related to an environmental disturbance, the method leverages the difference between the rate of events expected in the absence of any disturbances (baseline) and the rate of actually observed events. In the analysis, the local disturbances are identified and estimators of their duration and magnitude are provided.

Associating disturbance events to accidents or tickets

Disclosed embodiments provide techniques for estimating imputation algorithm performance. Multiple imputer algorithms are selected, and an evaluation of how well each of the imputer algorithms can estimate the missing data is performed. Disclosed embodiments obtain an imputer candidate dataset (ICD). The imputer candidate dataset is compared to the incomplete data range, and a similarity metric is determined between the data range and the ICD. When the similarity metric exceeds a predetermined threshold, an imputer evaluation dataset (IED) is created from the ICD by removing one or more data points from the ICD. Each imputer algorithm is evaluated by applying the IED to it, and computing an imputer evaluation metric based on its performance. The multiple imputer algorithms are ranked based on the imputer evaluation metric. The best ranked imputer algorithm can then be selected for use on the incomplete data range within the measurement dataset.

Data gap mitigation

A computer implemented federated learning method of predicting failure of assets includes generating a local model at a local site for each of the cohorts and training the local model on local data for each of the cohorts for each failure type. The local model is shared with a central database. A global model is created based on an aggregation of a plurality of the local models from a plurality of the local sites. At each of the plurality of local sites, one of the global model and the local model is chosen for each of the cohorts. The chosen model operates on local data to predict failure of the assets. The utilized features include partitioning features of the assets into static features, semi-static features, and dynamic features, and forming cohorts of the assets based on the static features and the semi-static features.

Federated learning for multi-label classification model for oil pump management

A computing device includes a processor and a storage device. A vehicle asset modeling module is stored in the storage device and is executed by the processor to configure the computing device to perform acts of identifying and clustering a plurality of assets based on static properties of a vehicle asset using a first module of the vehicle asset modeling module. The clustered plurality of assets is determined based on dynamic properties of the vehicle asset using a second module. Event prediction is performed by converting a numeric data of the clustered plurality of assets to a natural language processing (NLP) domain by a third module. One or more sequence-to-sequence methods are performed to predict a malfunction of a component of the vehicle asset and/or an event based on past patterns. Prediction information is stored in the storage device.

Vehicle asset modeling using language processing methods

A computing device, method, and system are provided of improving data quality to conserve computational resources. The computing device receives a raw dataset. One or more data quality metric goals corresponding to the received raw dataset are received. A schema of the dataset is determined. An initial set of validation nodes is identified based on the schema of the dataset. The initial set of validation nodes are executed. A next set of validation nodes are iteratively expanded and executed based on the schema of the dataset until a termination criterion is reached. A corrected dataset of the raw dataset is provided based on the iterative execution of the initial and next set of validation nodes.

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Yorktown Heights, NY, United States of America

Anuradha Bhamidipaty